Photovoltaic modules and energy storage batteries are both areas of great concern, but the one that is quietly growing is the photovoltaic cable. This aspect cannot be overlooked. Whether the power station can supply power normally and whether the project can be completed on schedule will ultimately be reflected in this line. The current market situation is already quite clear. The demand is still on the rise.
By 2025, the total value of the global photovoltaic cable market will reach 14.2 billion US dollars, and the sales volume will exceed 8.9 million kilometers. In 2026, it will increase to around 15.8 billion US dollars, and will continue to grow at a rate of 11% annually. The Chinese market is larger. In 2025, the market size in China will reach 68.2 billion RMB, accounting for about 56% of the global market share. In 2026, it is likely to exceed 76 billion RMB. That is to say, the largest photovoltaic wire and cable production base and consumption area in the world are both located in China.
However, despite the hustle and bustle, the situation in this industry is not easy. On the surface, it seems to be due to a series of benefits brought about by the expansion of installation capacity. But in reality, the threshold has been raised. After the promotion of 1500V systems, ordinary equipment can no longer meet the demands. Requirements such as high voltage resistance, aging resistance, salt fog resistance, and high cold resistance are increasing. After the rise of energy storage projects, the requirements for large current carrying capacity and flame retardancy have become even higher. Previously, there was little room to utilize the method of low price and large volume production.
The most obvious change is that the concentration has increased. By 2025, the CR5 (the top 5 companies) in China's photovoltaic cable market will reach 41%, an increase of 9 percentage points compared to last year. The market share of large enterprises is growing larger and larger, while the situation for small enterprises is even worse. The main reason is that the owners of large projects have increasingly higher requirements for qualifications, delivery time, inventory, and after-sales service. They no longer want to bet the entire power station on a cheap cable. Especially state-owned enterprises and large EPC companies, they would rather spend more money to find enterprises that can provide long-term supply and can be held accountable in case of problems.
The issue of production capacity distribution can also be seen from this. By 2025, the total production capacity of photovoltaic cables worldwide will reach approximately 12.5 million kilometers. The actual length of cables produced is around 9.1 million meters, with an utilization rate of 72.8%. It may seem not urgent, but the quality production capacity is not abundant. The Asia-Pacific region accounts for 62% of the global production capacity, and China's output accounts for 56% of the global total. By 2030, the global production capacity will reach over 18 million vehicles, and most of the newly produced vehicles will be concentrated in Central and South Asia regions. There will be more orders in terms of quantity, but these orders will be more concentrated.
From the perspective of the product, the main type is the general-purpose copper-conductor cable, which accounts for approximately 82% of the total market sales volume. This is the most fundamental condition and will not change in the short term. However, the two other parts with relatively fast growth rates are as follows. One is the aluminum-conductor cable, which is expected to account for about 12% by 2025, and its growth rate will exceed 20% in 2026. This is because it is lightweight and has a lower cost when used for long-distance laying. The other is the special-purpose cable. Although its market share only accounts for 6% of the total cable market, its average annual growth rate can reach 24% in the next five years. This is where the gap is created. Those who can handle special scenarios are more likely to obtain high-quality orders.
However, there are also problems. The price fluctuations of copper and aluminum have been constantly squeezing profits. The certification requirements in overseas markets are very high, and trade frictions have occurred quite frequently. Another more practical risk is that there are still non-standard and low-quality products disrupting the market. In the short term, they can secure some orders; but from a long-term perspective, when considering costs throughout the entire lifecycle, such goods will be eliminated.
Therefore, the demand for this round of photovoltaic cable market will continue to increase. Investments in areas such as photovoltaic power stations, energy storage, and charging stations are also expanding. However, it is still the large companies that have been certified, possess core technologies, have production capabilities, have sufficient inventory, and can ensure supply that can turn the growth into profits. The rest will have to be more passive.
